WEATHERMODELS.COM  |  NOAA REFS  |  REFS ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS NCEP POST-PROCESSED · HOURLY TO 60 H
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NOAA REFS Ensemble Products

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RRFS ENSEMBLE [MEMBERS] [DETERMINISTIC]
Information
  • REFS is NOAA's Rapid Refresh Forecast System ensemble, the RRFS-based successor to SREF and HREF. These are NCEP's own post-processed products, not re-derived from the members: the probability-matched mean (PMM) and its localized form, which keep a member's rainfall peaks instead of smearing them the way a plain mean does; the ensemble mean and the spread, which is the ensemble's own measure of how much it disagrees; exceedance probabilities, the fraction of members over a threshold; and the flash-flood products against flash-flood guidance and recurrence intervals. MAP switches product and keeps the area and hour. Hourly to 60 hours, 00/06/12/18Z. An accumulation product appears only once its window closes — 3-hourly, and the 12-hour windows begin at hour 15 — so those products have fewer frames than the hourly ones. The flash-flood products are CONUS only. The newest cycle fills in as it is drawn.
  • LAGGED (6 RUNS) shows the current run beside the five before it, all valid at the same time: how the forecast for that moment has changed run to run.
  • SAVE LOOP makes an MP4 or GIF of what you are looking at, for all the frames or just a range, in your browser; SAVE IMAGE saves the map on screen, or the six lagged runs on one PNG. Nothing is uploaded.
  • A service of weathermodels.com. The forecasts and the ensemble products are NOAA's, from the RRFS/REFS open-data archive.