WEATHERMODELS.COM  |  ECMWF EC46  |  EXTENDED RANGE EC46 · WEEKLY TO 46 DAYS
Forecast week
F00
F00
——
Speed
DRAG THE BALL OR CLICK A TICK · SPACE TO PLAY · ← → TO STEP · [ ] CHANGE CYCLE · L LAGGED RUNS · P SAVE PNG
Save loop
Save image
[PREVIOUS EC46 FORECAST CYCLES]

ECMWF EC46 [Weekly to Day 46]

VIEW
MAP
LOOP
SPEED:
EC46 DAILY MAPS (each day, degree days, 5- and 7-day windows) [LINK]
EC46 CITY METEOGRAMS (46 days at 227 cities) [LINK]
Information
  • ECMWF extended-range ensemble (EC46, 101 members, run daily at 00Z) maps for each Monday-Sunday week after the run to day 46 (five, or six for a Thursday-Monday run), and weeks 3-4 together: the ensemble-mean weekly mean and anomaly against ECMWF's re-forecast climate, the chance of above-normal and of larger departures, the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails. A frame is a calendar week, numbered from the run: week N is forecast days 7N-6 to 7N, and a Monday-Sunday week takes the number of the one holding most of its days (so a Tuesday run's first full week, days 7-13, is week 2), so for those runs week 1 (days 1-7) is made here from the ensemble-mean daily data: its means, and anomalies against the normal ECMWF's own first two weeks imply (mean minus anomaly), carried back to days 1-7; there are no chances or extreme indices for it. Weeks 3-4 is about days 15-28. LAGGED shows the same calendar week in the runs before. A run is published about 21-22Z.
  • LAGGED (6 RUNS) shows the current run beside the five before it, for the same calendar week: how the forecast for it has changed run to run (its week number counts from each run, so it differs).
  • SAVE LOOP makes an MP4 or GIF of what you are looking at, for all the frames or just a range, in your browser; SAVE IMAGE saves the map on screen, or the six lagged runs on one PNG. Nothing is uploaded.
  • A service of weathermodels.com. The maps are created from ECMWF's extended-range ensemble (EC46: 101 members to 46 days, 00Z daily), the weekly products of its O320 grid as Open-Meteo publishes them, at 0.25°.