Colour the cities by
Week
Look at
Cities
- EC46 is ECMWF's extended-range ensemble: 101 members run to 46 days every day at 00Z. The open data hold the members' mean and spread, so the meteogram draws the ensemble mean with a band of ±1.28 spreads (about 10–90 % of the members, were they spread normally). Values are the 0.25° grid point nearest the city, not a station forecast.
- Days are UTC days. Weeks are numbered from the run, as CPC numbers them: week N is forecast days 7N−6 to 7N; each block is the Monday–Sunday week that ECMWF's weekly products cover.
- Normals are ECMWF's own, from its re-forecasts (each week's mean minus its anomaly). On the map a dot is the city's value for the week picked; “chance warmer / wetter” is the share of the 101 members above the normal. Week 1 of a Tuesday–Thursday run comes from the daily data and has no odds.